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18-Mar-2020 09:17 by 7 Comments

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The EIA has apparently stopped publishing its International Energy Statistics.

They have Non-OPEC peaking in March 2015 at 46,504,000 bpd and down by 925,000 bpd in February to 45,579,000 bpd. OPEC C C failed to breach its 2012 peak but did reach 34,562,000 bpd in July 2015 but by February 2016 it was down 488,000 bpd to 34,074,000 bpd. It looks exactly like Canada’s National Energy Board data except the EIA’s data is about 150,000 bpd less than Canada’s NEB shows.Obviously Canada is counting something that the EIA is not. The only question left to be answered is how fast will she decline?Look for Canada’s production to decline substantially in 2016. There are several articles on the web about China’s decline, but they all say about the same thing. Mexico managed to stem their decline for a few months but their production has begun to decline again.Everyone because everyone had a different opinion a few months ago. I think US production will continue to decline for another year or so. I think production will flatten out then increase slightly.But the boom times very expensive shale oil brought are over. The price collapse caused the plateau in world oil production that begun about March 2015.It is likely they will continue to hold this production for at least another year. The UK peaked at just under 3 million barrels per day in 1998 and for the last three years or so has averaged about one third that amount. My above projection was made using average change in production of the Energy Ministry’s data.

Everyone has a different opinion on what to expect from Russia next year. The USA is, of course a big part of what is happening to world oil production, and will continue to play a big part.They have world C C peaking, so far, in November 2015 at 80,630,000 bpd.February production was 79,653,000 bpd, or 977,000 bpd below the peak.On the other hand, the Barnett (chart above in red) had a much different profile as its production peak was more rounded and slow. The decline of shale gas production at the Haynesville was more rapid and sudden.I believe the Eagle Ford and Marcellus shale gas production declines will resemble what took place in the Haynesville.All you have to do is look at how the Eagle Ford and Marcellus ramped up production.